Low Inventory - Is The Tide Finally Turning?

Real Estate Technology

In last Friday's blog we looked at the very upbeat latest real estate market statistics for the Albuquerque area - click here if you missed them.

One particular stat caught our attention, as it could, just possibly, signal the beginning of a reversal of a long trend of of falling inventory of available homes for sale in this area.

Although total active listings again fell by 15.5% in a year on year comparison, what really stood out for us was that new listings for detached homes rose by no less than 12.29% compared with February 2015.

Although no doubt partially explained by seasonal shifts as sellers get ready for higher spring market activity, newly listed detached homes were well over 200 homes up on the figure posted at the end of January.

New listings fell by 8.39% in January, so it's hard to ignore the potential significance of the February new listing increase.

For some time in this blog, we've been strongly recommending that those considering selling their homes do so now while there is such incredible buyer sentiment and willingness to purchase in the area.

While we're not suggesting for one minute that there will be an overnight change in the overall situation, that 12.29% increase got us looking back over area stats for the past year and no wonder it stood out so prominently!

In the past 12 months, there have only been two other instances of year on year new listing rises and they have been pretty modest - just 1.63% in July and a slightly more hopeful 5.20% in November, which was then followed by two months of negative figures until February's impressive percentage surfaced last week.

While it's great for sellers that demand continues to outstrip overall supply, clearly that's not a very sustainable position and it will be fascinating to look at March's figures in just under a month's time to see if February was just a seasonal blip or if it is the start of a new trend of more sellers finally acknowledging the fantastic opportunities for them at present.

The healthy rises that we've been seeing for some time in pending sales and actual sales are obviously the two key factors behind continiung year on year falls in overall active listings. So we therefore decided to look for any positive trends in active listings over the past year. This made for interesting reading.
The last time active listings showed a year on year increase was the 3.68% rise posted in December 2014. Since then we've tracked falls on an annual comparison each month, culminating in a 22.14% drop in September.

What's perhaps quite encouraging is that, since September, the rate of fall has declined and, perhaps significantly, last month saw no less than a 4% "improvement" on the January report.

So what conclusions, if any, can we draw from all this?

Certainly it's encouraging to see that inventory is falling at a lower annual rate and that there are more sellers arriving on the market. But, as we said, earlier, what happens from now on will be crucial in terms of identifying a new trend.

We'll keep you posted. Meantime don't hesitate to contact us whether you're a buyer and/or a seller for the best advice in the current excellent market conditions.





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